K-line pattern analysis：
Observed from a short-term perspective, Bitcoin has recently shown a K-line pattern of high fluctuations. A long upper shadow line has appeared before. From a technical analysis perspective, the emergence of a long upper shadow line means that during the price surge, the top has encountered relatively strong selling pressure, indicating that there are more investors in the market choosing to trade. The selling of Bitcoin at relatively high levels has caused bulls to be blocked in pushing the price upward, making it difficult to achieve further breakthroughs. On November 14th and 15th, the Bitcoin K-line showed a negative line shape. This phenomenon reflected that the overall market sentiment in the short term was biased towards the short side. The selling force occupies a relatively dominant position in the current market environment. Investors took profits based on Considering this, its willingness to sell has increased significantly, which has led to a certain degree of decline in the price of Bitcoin and the market has entered a short-term adjustment stage.Moving Average Analysis:
In terms of short-term moving averages: such as the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, they have shown signs of flattening or turning downward. This change in technical indicators reveals to a certain extent that the upward momentum of Bitcoin in the short term is weakening, and the price trend is likely to enter an adjustment cycle. As an important technical tool to reflect changes in price trends, the shape changes of the moving average have a key reference value for judging the short-term trend of the market. At this time, the performance of the short-term moving average implies that the comparison of long and short forces in the market is changing, the short force has increased, and the suppression of prices has begun to appear.
Medium-term moving average: On the other hand, the 30-day, 60-day and other medium-term moving averages are still trending upward at this stage. This shows that from a macro medium-term perspective, the upward trend of Bitcoin has not been substantially damaged, and the overall medium-term positive market situation still exists. However, it is important to note that if the short-term price of Bitcoin continues to fall, it will test the medium-term moving average. Once the price falls below the key medium-term moving average, it is very likely to trigger panic selling by more investors in the market, which will lead to a further increase in selling, creating greater downward pressure on prices and accelerating the depth and breadth of market adjustments.
Technical indicator analysis:
MACD (Exponential Moving Average Difference) indicator analysis: From the perspective of the 4-hour cycle, the DIF (Difference) and DEA (Derivative Average) in the MACD indicator both show a downward trend, and the MACD bar chart shows a negative value. This series of indicators fully demonstrates that the short-selling momentum in the current market is in an enhanced stage, and the market is under heavy selling pressure in the short term. According to the logical inference of technical analysis, this situation is very likely to push the price of Bitcoin further down. However, it is worth noting that if the MACD indicator shows a golden cross phenomenon in the low area, that is, the DIF line crosses the DEA line from bottom to top, then this technical signal often indicates that the short-selling force in the market may be exhausted in the short term, and the price may usher in a rebound opportunity. At that time, the market sentiment and price trend may change accordingly. Investors need to pay close attention to the changes in this key indicator.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator analysis: Currently, the RSI indicator value is around 54.87 and has fallen back from the overbought zone. In the conventional definition of technical analysis, the interval with an RSI value higher than 70 is usually judged as the overbought area, which means that the market's buying power is over-concentrated in the short term, and there is a certain degree of overestimation risk in the price; and the interval with an RSI value lower than 30 is defined as the oversold area, indicating that the market's selling power is over-released and the price may be underestimated. The phenomenon of the RSI indicator falling back from the overbought zone at this stage intuitively reflects that the bullish power in the Bitcoin market is gradually weakening, and the market is likely to enter a stage of adjustment in the short term. However, given that the current RSI value is still in the middle area, this also shows that the overall long and short forces in the market are in a relatively balanced state at this stage, and there is still a certain degree of uncertainty in the subsequent price trend, which requires comprehensive consideration of multiple factors and continuous tracking and observation.
Trend line and support and resistance level analysis:
Trend line perspective: If the previous price trend of Bitcoin has already formed a corresponding upward trend line, then the recent downward trend of prices will undoubtedly test the support strength of this trend line. Based on the theoretical logic of technical analysis, if the price of Bitcoin effectively falls below this upward trend line, then it can be reasonably inferred that its previous upward trend will be temporarily declared over, and the market will most likely enter a downward trend or consolidation phase. In this process, the trend line is an important tool for depicting price trend changes. Its support and resistance are of vital reference significance for judging the transformation of the market structure and subsequent price trends. Investors need to pay close attention to the changes in the relationship between prices and trend lines.
Support and resistance: As far as support and resistance are concerned, after comprehensive analysis, the key support level is roughly around $85,000. If the price of Bitcoin can stabilize near this support level, this situation will have a positive impact on the psychological expectations of market investors, and is expected to attract buying funds to gradually intervene in the market, thereby providing corresponding power support for price rebounds and pushing Bitcoin prices to regain their upward momentum. On the upper side, the price of about $90,000 constitutes a key resistance level. If the price of Bitcoin intends to restart the upward trend, it must break through this resistance level, otherwise it will face greater upward pressure and it will be difficult to achieve sustained price increases. The market will continue to fluctuate and adjust within the current price range.
