Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last night (13th) showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in October, both in line with market expectations.
In addition, the core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained unchanged at 3.3% month-on-month, and the annual growth rate was also 3.3%, both in line with market expectations.
The probability of a rate cut in December rose to 82.3%
Previously, as Trump won the US election, the market expected that his economic policies after taking office might slow down the pace of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
However, after the release of the October CPI data, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Fed Watch tool, the market expected the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 1 basis point in December to have risen to 82.3% from 58.7% the previous day, while the probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in the range of 4.75% to 5% has dropped to 17.7%.
Bitcoin briefly surpasses $93,000
With the release of CPI data, expectations of further interest rate cuts in December were reinforced. Bitcoin once again gained momentum last night, breaking through the $93,000 mark at 00:15 today (14), reaching a high of $93,263.
However, selling pressure emerged afterwards, and the price even fell back to US$88,000 earlier, trapping many users who chased the rise after seeing the new high.
According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total amount of cryptocurrency liquidation on the entire network reached US$847 million, with long positions liquidated at US$520 million and short positions liquidated at US$326 million. More than 250,000 people were liquidated, which can be said to be a double kill of long and short positions.
$100,000 is a very reasonable goal
Although it is difficult to predict the price of Bitcoin, a target of $100,000 in a few months “doesn’t seem too far-fetched,” he said. “Given the bullish momentum, coupled with the fact that the economy has avoided a recession, we expect Bitcoin’s downside to be limited right now. This (the $100,000 target) looks very reasonable.”
Bitcoin's rise to $100,000 is "now possible" because Trump's victory and Republican control of the Senate may make it easier to promote the "expected relaxed regulatory framework", and $100,000 Bitcoin "doesn't sound so unreasonable" because its market value is equivalent to "only 10% of the gold market share." He believes that the main catalysts for Bitcoin's future are changes in SEC leadership, cryptocurrency-friendly regulation, and further adoption of cryptocurrencies by large companies. Another catalyst could be a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
By the time Trump takes office as president on January 20, 2025, the price of Bitcoin will likely reach $100,000. After the news of Trump's victory in the election, Aboualfa said in written comments to CNBC: "For Bitcoin, it is worth remembering that Trump's presidency from 2016 to 2020 witnessed two historical high cycles. Although these gains came against the backdrop of a weaker dollar, which is different from today's environment of a stronger dollar. However, given that the Bitcoin spot ETF currently holds about 1.1 million Bitcoins, the momentum is likely to remain positive in the coming months."
CNBC says Bitcoin price could reach $100,000 before the presidential inauguration.
