“Bitcoin hitting $100,000 is not a matter of if — it’s a matter of when,” Duro Labs CEO Michael Cahill told The Block.
Industry experts differ on when they think this psychological level will be breached, but the consensus seems to be that it will happen within the next 1-3 months.
Bitcoin has hit record highs over the past week since Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5. On election night, it surpassed its previous all-time high of $73,730, and at press time, it was trading around $87,000, according to The Block price data.
With the tailwinds of Trump’s election, the possibility of sovereign nations entering the mix in anticipation of a US strategic reserve, and interest rate easing, how long can the rally last after the election?
“Don’t fight this,” Bernstein analysts told clients in a note Monday. “Welcome to the crypto bull market — buy all you can.”
Bernstein and Standard Chartered predict Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the end of next year, but when might the world’s largest cryptocurrency break $100,000? Polymarket bets on whether that will happen by the end of 2024 have surpassed $3 million in total trading volume today, with odds of that happening at 59%.
“Bitcoin hitting $100,000 is not a question of if — it’s a question of when,” Michael Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs, told The Block. “In my opinion, it could be as early as Q1 2025. Given the current macro environment favoring digital assets, we are seeing unprecedented momentum.”
“100K by inauguration at the latest,” said Matt Klein, portfolio strategist at Nascent. “The only question is whether the Lummis bill is serious. There is no upper limit if the Lummis bill becomes law.”
Fear or fearlessness?
According to Cahill, the post-election rally is not just about the fear of missing out, but he said the current price is not just retail-driven speculation like it was in 2017.
“Finally, the market has come to realize that Bitcoin is a legitimate asset and a hedge against inflationary pressures,” he said. “Today, we are witnessing a structural shift in how investors view Bitcoin. The foundation for a six-figure price is already in place, and this rally has the potential to cement Bitcoin as a cornerstone of the global financial system.”
Since breaking above $74,000, there has been an air gap to $100,000, according to Bitwise CTO Matt Hogan, who said Bitcoin could “easily” reach that level by the end of the year.
“Everyone is focusing on the new people buying bitcoin. That’s very real,” Hogan said in a post on X. “But an equal part of this rally is that people stopped selling. Long-term holders are no longer willing to part with bitcoin for less than $100,000, and short sellers don’t want to get in front of a freight train.”
Tides.Network CEO Chandra Duggerala said $100,000 could easily happen before Thanksgiving, but there is a risk of a near-term spike.
“We are not seeing a strong FOMO from wealth managers and retail is just starting to pay attention,” Dougirala said in an email. “So the trend is still young. We believe the real FOMO will come once it crosses $100,000.”
This point was echoed by Zuhair Ebtekar, founder and CTO of Split Capital.
“Historically, people have also been forced into this narrative or idea that the Bitcoin moves actually happened when the all-time high was broken, so I think that was kind of self-validating,” Ebtekar told The Block. “But I think more importantly… a lot of the smarter money and a lot of crypto natives are managing the potential future capital that’s going to come into the space.”
He noted that if people wanted to give money to an asset allocator, it wouldn’t happen right away. Because of this, a lot of the fear of missing out won’t really materialize until December 1 at the earliest, with January 1, 2025, looking more realistic.
“I think we have a very strange window where it's like a lot of sharper capital that can, you know, move money around before the market hits some kind of systematic bid,” Ebtekar said.
