Thanks to Trump's victory in the US presidency, the cryptocurrency market has recently ushered in a wave of celebrations. Bitcoin has also been soaring since November 5, breaking through the $90,000 mark yesterday after setting new historical highs several times. In addition to the fact that Trump's election is expected to bring a relaxed regulatory environment to the cryptocurrency industry, another major catalyst for this bull market is the interest rate cut cycle that the US Federal Reserve started at the end of September. However, since Trump may bring new economic policies after taking office, the Fed may not cut interest rates as many times next year as the market had previously expected in September. Next year, the pace of interest rate cuts will be affected by Trump's fiscal policies.
This is not good news for the safe-haven asset market. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 1 basis point in December, which has dropped sharply from 84.4% a month ago to 55.2%. The probability of suspending interest rate cuts in December and maintaining interest rates in the range of 4.75%-5% has increased from 15% a month ago to 44.8%.
In terms of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin suffered a setback around 8 o'clock last night, with the lowest price reaching 85,112 US dollars. However, it quickly rose again to challenge the 90,000 US dollar mark, but unfortunately it failed and fell back. As of the time of writing, the price was 87,436 US dollars, down 1.94% in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin daily chart
First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin daily chart, the current price of Bitcoin has broken through the upper track, and the price is running above the upper track, which is an obvious overbought performance. When the price breaks through the upper track and continues to hover near the upper track, it means that the upward trend is strong, but it is also necessary to pay attention to the possibility of a pullback at any time. If the price continues to run along the upper track, the price may continue to rise. If the price falls back within the upper track, then the price may be adjusted or pulled back in the short term.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin daily chart, the KDJ three-line value is already in the high overbought area, which indicates that the current market is at risk of overheating and there may be a correction in the short term. If the KDJ three-line value forms a dead cross pattern at a high level, the possibility of a correction will increase.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin daily chart, the DIF line is higher than the DEA line and runs above the 0 axis, forming a bullish pattern, which shows that the market's upward momentum is still strong and the upward trend may continue in the short term. In addition, the MACD red bar chart is also continuing to lengthen, which also confirms the bullish trend. However, the MACD indicator has reached a relatively high position, and we need to pay attention to the risk of callback.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current Bollinger Band opening is relatively large. Although the price has fallen from the upper track, it is still running between the middle track and the upper track. If the price continues to fall and falls below the middle track, the risk of short-term correction will increase, and it may touch the support of the lower track of the Bollinger Band. The middle track is a short-term support point. If it can get support and rebound here, then the bulls still have the upper hand; otherwise, it may continue to decline.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, both the K-line value and the D-line value are at high levels and have a trend of turning downward, indicating that the market is in the adjustment stage after overbought in the short term. If the K-line value and the D-line value form a dead cross downward, it may further push the price down. The KDJ three-line value has already pulled back from a high level, and the upward momentum in the short term is insufficient, and the possibility of a pullback has increased.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current DIF line crosses the DEA line downward above the 0 axis to form a dead cross pattern. And the MACD red bar chart has turned from red to green, and the bullish force has gradually weakened, which has greatly increased the downward pressure in the short term.
Comprehensive analysis shows that according to the Bitcoin daily chart, Bitcoin still has a strong upward trend, but multiple indicators have entered the overbought range, and there may be a risk of a pullback in the short term. According to the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the signal of Bitcoin adjustment is relatively obvious. The bullish momentum of MACD has weakened, the KDJ indicator has pulled back from a high level, and the pressure on the upper track of the Bollinger Band has also emerged. If the subsequent KDJ forms a dead cross and MACD continues to weaken, then Bitcoin may continue to pull back. The middle track of the Bollinger Band below can be used as a short-term support level. If the price is supported by the middle track and is not broken, then it is possible to rise again; if the middle track is lost, then it is possible to seek support from the lower track of the Bollinger Band.
To sum up, the great master gives the following suggestions for reference:
It is recommended to short Bitcoin when it rebounds to around 87,800, with a target of 86,000-85,200 and a defense of 88,300.
It is recommended to go long on Bitcoin when it pulls back to around 85200, with a target of 88000-89000 and a defense of 84600.
It is better to give you a correct idea and trend than to give you a 100% accurate suggestion. After all, it is better to teach a man to fish than to give him a fish. Suggestions can make money for a while, but ideas can make money for a lifetime! What I focus on is the idea, the grasp of the trend, the layout of the market and the position planning. All I can do is to use my practical experience to help you so that your investment decisions and business management will go in the right direction.
Writing time: (2024-11-13,17:15)
(Text - Daxian Shuobi) Hereby declare: There is a delay in online release, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is committed to research and analysis in investment fields such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, and stocks. He has been involved in the financial market for many years and has rich experience in real-time operations. Investments are risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please pay attention to Daxian Shuobi, a Chonghao account, to discuss and communicate together.#BTC何时破9万？
