BTC
Macro
1. CPI data will be released in the evening. The market expected value is greater than the previous value. It is expected to be bearish. Considering the profit-taking of short-term surge and technical repair, be alert to callbacks. The actual trend is subject to the data results.
2. Trump said that Elon Musk and VIVEK will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and the related token DOGE is expected to perform well in the future. Due to the large short-term increase in DOGE, it is not suitable for short-term participation, but we need to pay attention to low opportunities in the future.
3. The overall performance of the US dollar index, bond prices, Nasdaq, and S&P indexes has been moving in the same direction recently. Trump's victory has boosted the development of cryptocurrencies and technology stocks. It should be noted that in the past, the trend of cryptocurrencies usually refers to the performance of the Nasdaq. At present, the Nasdaq has closed negative for two consecutive days at a high level and has a gap in the previous period. We need to be alert to the demand for gap filling after the short-term peak at a high level - there is a potential negative impact on the currency circle
4. In terms of funds, Bitcoin spot ETF still maintains a net inflow, but the inflow amount has weakened compared with the previous high level. The overall trend remains unchanged, but we need to remain vigilant
Technical aspects
1. The daily line closed with a long lower shadow K-line and was accompanied by a huge volume. The short-term trend in K-line, position, and volume is similar to the high point in March this year. Be wary of a callback
2. In the 4H chart, the short-term rising speed slows down, and the shrinking trading volume indicates a short-term adjustment. The adjustment range can refer to 85,000-90,000. Combined with the resonance of Gann angle line 2/1 and the recent low point, 85,000 can be used as a short-term long-short watershed.
3. Pay attention to the potential M top in the 1H chart
If it falls below the neckline support (around 85,000), the 1:1 space measurement will point to around 80,000 (1H short-term EMA moving average support)
If it does not fall below, it will maintain a high range of fluctuations (85000-90000) to cooperate with the repair of various short-term technical indicators.
4. Indicators (1H chart)
MA: The short-term MA crosses at a high level, but the medium and long-term MA is still in a bullish arrangement. We need to pay attention to the potential old duck head pattern.
Trading strategies
Long order: long around 85500-85000, stop loss at 84000, take profit around 87000-88800 (intraday short-term)
Note: Intraday short-term long orders are mainly based on high-level fluctuations. Because there will be heavy CPI data in the evening, please pay attention to timely prompts if there are strategy adjustments. Today, the main focus is on the gains and losses of the 85,000 line.
The above views are for reference only. Please bear the risk of trading based on them and pay attention to position risk control
