Although it will take Trump two months to officially take office after his election, the impact of his victory has been widely reflected in geopolitics and capital markets. Cryptocurrency has once again become the focus. While vote counting has not yet been completed in some parts of the United States, the price of BTC has exceeded $80,000, and Blackrock's BTC ETF (IBIT) set a record of $1.1 billion in single-day inflows last Thursday. Even the ETH ETF has seen the third-highest single-day inflow in its history.
IBIT has had the third-highest inflows of any U.S.-listed ETF so far this year, and its assets under management have surpassed iShares' own gold ETF at more than $33 billion. Amid this surge, centralized exchanges (CEX) liquidated more than $800 million in short futures positions in the past week, one of the largest short liquidations this year, and as leveraged funds returned in large numbers, perpetual contracts The funding rate has soared to around 30%.
In addition, despite weak on-chain activity, the inflow of traditional finance has become a stable and supportive factor. The market value of stablecoins has continued to recover steadily this year and has returned to historical highs close to 2022. Further inflows of stablecoins should provide more Margin funding, as prices continue to rebound, leverage is expected to continue to be maintained.
From a political perspective, given that the incoming government is more inclined to support cryptocurrency legislation, the industry is increasingly optimistic about the emergence of a more friendly cryptocurrency regulatory framework in the future.
Returning to macro markets, U.S. stocks continued to hit new highs despite disappointment over Chinese stimulus, while fixed income markets held steady on the back of a dovish tone from last Thursday's FOMC meeting. In addition, as the market is expected to remain in risk-on mode until the end of the year, the cross-asset volatility of macro assets has declined significantly. On the other hand, as BTC exceeded $80,000, the volatility of BTC and ETH rebounded slightly, reaching $100,000. call options have once again entered the market focus.
There is not much other important macroeconomic data this month, except for the CPI data release this week. Interestingly, the market pricing reflects that Nvidia's earnings release is a more important risk event than CPI or non-farm payrolls, which shows that the market is more confident in the Fed's stance and there are no obvious negative catalysts in the market environment.
So, enjoy the party while it lasts, but still maintain prudent risk management. Good luck everyone!
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