YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — Prediction marketplace Kalshi has broadened its betting options on US political events, seeking to sustain user interest following the Nov. 5 presidential election. New contracts include bets on topics such as President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet selections and the likelihood of his impeachment, as recorded in Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filings.
CFTC-Certified Political Event Betting Options by KEX. Source: CFTC Polymarket Leads, but Kalshi Gains Momentum
While Polymarket, a Web3-based platform, took the lead with $3.3 billion in betting tied to the presidential race, Kalshi has been rapidly growing. Since launching its US-focused political event contracts on Oct. 7, Kalshi’s presidential betting market recorded $250 million in trading volume by Nov. 5. This was made possible after Kalshi won a legal case allowing it to offer election-based contracts despite previous regulatory hurdles.
On Oct. 28, Kalshi introduced USD Coin (USDC) as a deposit option, targeting crypto-savvy users. This move makes it easier for participants to bet on political events using cryptocurrency, without needing to exchange into fiat currency.
Expanding International Political Betting Markets
Alongside US contracts, Kalshi has introduced international political betting markets, including contracts for the 2025 elections in Canada and Ireland. This expansion indicates Kalshi’s strategy to attract a broader user base interested in global political events, further diversifying its offerings.
Kalshi Forecast: Trump Leads Harris 90% to 10%. Source: Tarek Mansour
Kalshi’s approval to list US election contracts has also encouraged other platforms to explore political betting options. For instance, Robinhood started testing election-related contracts for certain users on Oct. 28, while Interactive Brokers launched similar betting markets in October.
Trump’s Impeachment: Is It Possible?
Trump’s impeachment is a topic of interest, partly because of his controversial return to office and issues that remain from his last term. His potential impeachment could affect wider markets, as his policies and legal challenges impact how the market responds.
Impeachment is legally possible, even though Trump has already been impeached twice. The U.S. Constitution does not limit how many times a president can be impeached. Trump was previously impeached on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress in 2019 and for incitement of insurrection in 2021. However, in both cases, he was not convicted by the Senate, so he remained in office. These past impeachments show that while the House of Representatives can bring impeachment charges, the Senate requires a two-thirds majority to convict, which is often challenging to achieve.
H. RES. 24: Trump Impeachment Resolution for Incitement of Insurrection. Source: Congress.gov
Although no formal impeachment contracts are active, Trump’s impeachment certainly remains a topic of interest. Betting markets continue to focus on this in response to public interest in accountability, as well as the legal repercussions that could affect Trump’s presidential term.
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