According to The Block, the largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin has risen nearly 70% year-to-date and hit a new all-time high today as the market digests Republican candidate Donald Trump's early lead in the 2024 presidential race.
Bitcoin price has surpassed $73,737.94, setting a new all-time high, as the market focuses on Trump's early lead in the 2024 presidential election.
According to The Block’s price page, Bitcoin has gained 9.5% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading around $74,700.
Since breaking through its November 2021 all-time high of $69,000 on March 5, Bitcoin has continued to rise, hitting $73,000 on March 13. Since then, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $50,000 and $70,000 for more than seven months.
Ether's price rose 6.72%, trading at $2,562, while Solana increased 13.29% to $179, with most altcoins generally rising, and the overall crypto market up 6.77%, according to The Block.
The emergence of new historical highs during the U.S. presidential election is related to former President Trump's more favorable stance toward the cryptocurrency industry as he seeks re-election.
Trump changed his stance on cryptocurrencies in May, beginning to accept them as a form of donation. Since then, he has met with executives from Bitcoin mining companies and expressed a desire to make the U.S. the 'global crypto capital.' Meanwhile, Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a relatively low-profile stance on the topic.
According to reports from the Associated Press, Trump has won 52.5% of the votes so far, securing 198 electoral votes, while Harris currently has 99 electoral votes.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, Trump's odds of winning have surged to 84.3% amid $3 billion in bets on the election outcome over the past day.
Lennix Lai, Chief Commercial Officer of OKX, stated that uncertainty in macroeconomic policy may persist, leading to increased short-term volatility.
"The market has already factored in a Trump victory, leading to a short-term frenzy, as evidenced by today's new historical high, but there may be a pullback as we move towards further record highs," Lai said. "As a candidate, Trump has sent a very bullish signal to the market, indicating a desire to embrace the crypto industry and bolster the U.S. as a globally regulated crypto hub. If these policies are implemented, they will have far-reaching impacts worldwide."
"Historically, October and November are often the strongest months for annual returns, and today's breakthrough aligns with industry expectations," said Ben El-Baz, Managing Director at HashKey Global. "The next few days will be very important, including the intense U.S. elections, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on November 6, and the U.S. jobs report on November 8."
"Analysts expect significant volatility in the market as key swing states begin counting votes, but the overwhelming expectation in the prediction markets for a Trump victory may be driving the price up. Once the results are officially announced, Bitcoin could reach a new historical high, concluding this highly uncertain event for the crypto industry," said Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research.
ETF Momentum
As the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Bitcoin has risen nearly 70% year-to-date, largely due to significant inflows into the newly launched spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Since trading began on January 11, these ETFs have generated over $450 billion in daily cumulative trading volume as of October 28. In October alone, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $3.6 billion, bringing the total inflow year-to-date to $22.5 billion.
"We believe that Bitcoin's current price and inflows are significantly influenced by U.S. politics, and the recent surge in inflows may be related to the Republican Party's performance in the polls," said James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, last month.
The Bitcoin halving event on April 20 is another narrative for this year's price increase. The halving reduces the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation through miner rewards from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC. Miners continue to earn additional transaction fees for each block mined.
Bitcoin halving events occur automatically every 210,000 blocks—approximately every four years—and historically, these events have been associated with significant volatility in cryptocurrency prices. While not a direct causal relationship, these events often trigger notable bull markets in the Bitcoin market beforehand.
"The new historical high for Bitcoin not only marks a significant milestone for cryptocurrencies but also highlights the enduring resilience of decentralized digital assets and their increasing mainstream acceptance," said Daniel Seifert, CEO of Coinbase UK, in a previous interview with The Block. "This reflects a growing demand for this asset."
Earlier, analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein expressed 'greater confidence' in this round's Bitcoin price target of $150,000. Recently, they claimed that their forecast of $200,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 is 'conservative' and urged skeptics to reconsider the limited supply of cryptocurrencies amid record debt levels in the U.S.
