📊 BTC/USDT - Daily Analysis 📊
🔴 Main Scenarios
📉 Bearish Scenario (Wave C)
We are currently in corrective Wave C within a larger downtrend:
Rejection from the top suggests the completion of Wave B and the probable beginning of Wave C.
If price breaks down to reach the 1.618 or 2.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, this would confirm the end of Wave B and initiate the main downtrend toward targets in the $44,000 - $37,000 range.
Key Bearish Targets: $42,341.97 and $39,039.61.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Ending Diagonal)
In the bullish option, the current pattern might be forming an Ending Diagonal:
Price must hold the trendline support (a wick below is acceptable, but a strong breakdown would invalidate this).
BTC could continue upwards toward 0.61 - 0.7 Fibonacci levels, approximately at $70,300 - $71,700. Here, a potential rejection might test the trendline.
If Wave 4 of the ending diagonal remains intact, we may see a final minor rally to a new all-time high, targeting $77,000 - $79,300 to mark the top.
📉 Trading Strategy
Risk-Reward (RR) for Short Positions:
Monitor a bounce from support up to the $70,300 - $71,700 zone as a potential short entry.
The intensity of the decline after rejection will indicate whether a bearish trend is underway or if this is simply a corrective Wave 4.
🚫 Invalidation🚫
Short positions would be invalidated if price breaks above the previous all-time high.
📝 Conclusion📝
BTC is at a critical level. If it rejects around $70,300 - $71,700, a continuation of the downtrend is expected. Confirmation would come with a break below the lower trendline, signaling a potential Ending Diagonal pattern. Alternatively, if BTC holds within the Ending Diagonal, another minor leg up toward $77,000 - $79,300 could complete the bullish cycle before a possible decline toward 44K - 37K.
Disclaimer:
⚠️ This is not financial advice! All information provided is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Trading carries a high risk and may result in the loss of capital
