U.S. Presidential Elections: Will it be Trump or Harris?
The outcome of the U.S. elections carries significant weight, as the winning candidate will set the tone for the coming years.
However, it remains difficult to gauge to what extent a president can truly influence GDP growth or the evolution of stock markets. More important than political leadership is the overall health of the economy, which currently places the U.S. in a relatively strong position. The Federal Reserve maintains broad flexibility to respond to unexpected events.
Although current risks increase vulnerability to disruptions, long-term prospects remain positive. Still, the economic impact of political decisions should not be underestimated.
At the center of this heated electoral debate lies fiscal policy, a key issue that sharply divides the candidates.
Republicans advocate for tax cuts to stimulate economic growth, and Trump proposes a drastic 60% tariff on Chinese imports, a risky measure with possible repercussions for American consumers.
In contrast, Democrats call for tax increases on the wealthy to address rising income inequality, a shift that could deeply affect sectors such as luxury goods, telecommunications, and financial services.
Trump's policies could favor the defense sector, while a victory for Harris could further highlight the healthcare sector.
Regarding energy policy, fossil fuels and renewable energy are in stark opposition, creating uncertainty for businesses. However, there is bipartisan consensus on the urgent need to invest in American infrastructure and the importance of maintaining technological leadership against China.
