With the U.S. presidential elections around the corner, the cryptocurrency world is on edge. What will happen to the price of Bitcoin (BTC) if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins? Here are three predictions that are causing a stir.
1. Bitcoin at $80,000-$90,000 if Trump wins 🔥🤑
If Trump wins, some Bernstein analysts believe Bitcoin could soar to $90,000. The reason? Trump has shown his support for cryptocurrencies, promising to appoint a crypto-friendly SEC chair and make the U.S. a Bitcoin mining hub. That's a radical change!
Source: X
Trump's support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is the main reason behind this bullish outlook. At his campaign rallies, he has publicly advocated for the U.S. to become a leader in the cryptocurrency industry. Key proposals include appointing a cryptocurrency-friendly SEC chair to alleviate regulatory pressures, establishing a national Bitcoin reserve to support BTC adoption, and making the U.S. a hub for Bitcoin mining.
Bernstein's bullish prediction for Bitcoin aligns with a fractal analysis showing BTC reaching new all-time highs following the U.S. presidential elections, especially when coinciding with its halving events, which occur approximately every four years.
For example, in 2012, after the first halving in November, Bitcoin went from approximately $12 to its then all-time high of around $1,150 by the end of 2013, an increase of nearly 9,500%.
Similarly, in 2016, the second halving was followed by another strong rally. Bitcoin rose from around $650 in mid-2016 to approximately $20,000 in December 2017, marking an increase of over 3,000% since the period before the halving.
The third cycle followed the same pattern. After the halving in May 2020, Bitcoin rose from around $9,000 and reached a new high of $69,000 in November 2021.
With the fourth halving recently completed in April 2024, and the U.S. elections scheduled for November 5, historical trends suggest a potential upward movement in Bitcoin's price, likely towards the $80,000-$90,000 target set by Bernstein.
In October, they had predicted a BTC price rally towards $200,000 by 2025 regardless of the outcome of the U.S. elections.
2. Instant drop if Harris wins 😐😵💫
On the other hand, analyst Miles Deutscher suggests that a victory for Harris could trigger an instant drop in Bitcoin's price. The market fears that her administration may maintain or even strengthen regulatory scrutiny over cryptocurrencies. Hold on tight, it's going to be a bumpy ride!
He argues that a victory for Harris in the U.S. elections will trigger an "instant drop" in the Bitcoin market. This is likely to occur due to market fears that a Harris administration may maintain or even strengthen regulatory scrutiny over cryptocurrencies.
The outlook aligns with the increase in bets on Polymarket about a drop in Bitcoin's price in November.
For example, the strongest bets are for a drop to $65,000, with an implied probability of 75% that Bitcoin will reach that level, according to the price of 76¢ for 'Yes' shares.
3. Bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of November? 👀😮
Historically, November has been the most profitable month for Bitcoin since 2013, offering an average return of 46%. This has led analyst Lark Davis to anticipate similar gains in 2024.
"If we see a 46% increase from the current prices, this would take BTC to $104,000," he noted in his recent post on X.
3-day candlestick chart of the BTC/USD pair. Source: Lark Davis
The upcoming meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve on November 7, where a 25 basis point rate cut is speculated, could also boost Bitcoin's upside potential, even if it means a rally towards Bernstein's $80,000-$90,000 target.
The historically strong performance of Bitcoin in November, a possible rate cut from the Fed, and the pro-cryptocurrency narrative surrounding Trump's candidacy are aligning to create an optimistic outlook for BTC this month.
The price increased by 0.25% in the last 24 hours, reaching around $68,760 on November 4, although it recorded a decline of 7.35% from its local high of $73,600 set a week earlier.
The drop in the price of BTC accompanies a decrease of $1.1 billion in open interest in the futures market, liquidating approximately $300 million in positions, indicating that many traders are reducing their exposure before tomorrow's elections.
What do you think? Do you believe these predictions will come true? Let us know your comments and join the debate!
