🗳️ What we've learned from the consistent poll numbers shaping the 2024 election

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Let’s get one thing straight: The polls can’t tell us who is going to win the presidential election. Or which party will control Congress. Or who will win a particular state.

The race is that close and uncertain, and polls in previous election cycles have been that far off the mark.

They don’t tell us who’s going to win — but we'll know that soon enough. What the polls can do already is help explain the forces that shaped this election and how either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could emerge victorious.

🔸The gender gap is enormous

The latest national NBC News poll shows Trump winning men by 18 percentage points and Harris carrying women by 16 points — a combined 34-point gender gap, up from 30 points in October’s NBC News poll.

🔸Democrats have lost ground with Latino voters (as well as some Black voters)

While Harris and Democrats have gained ground among white women with college degrees, they’ve lost ground among Latino voters, according to this fall’s NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino poll.

🔸Voters view Trump’s presidency more positively than Biden’s

The latest NBC News poll finds President Joe Biden with a job rating of 41% approve, 58% disapprove. By comparison, Trump’s retrospective job rating in the same poll is 48% approve, 51% disapprove.

That 48% approval for Trump is higher than the NBC News poll ever found for him during his presidency.

Who is the change candidate in the race?

This might be the most important question in a contest between a sitting vice president (Harris) and an ex-president (Trump), who are both competing for voters who think the nation is on the wrong track. In the final NBC News poll, 46% of voters said Harris better represents change, compared with 41% who believe Trump does — a slight advantage for Harris.

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