According to Cointelegraph, Donald Trump's odds on Polymarket have narrowed as the drop in Bitcoin prices led to large-scale liquidations.
As Bitcoin's price briefly dipped below $69,000, liquidations in the crypto market reached nearly $350 million, with traders appearing nervous ahead of the November 5 U.S. presidential election.
According to CoinGlass data, a total of $349.8 million was liquidated on November 3, including $259.7 million in long positions and $90.1 million in short positions. This was the largest liquidation day since October 25, when Bitcoin failed to maintain a rebound above $70,000.
Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations, starting from around $67,700 on October 28, reaching a peak of nearly $73,300 on October 29, and then dropping to a low of $67,719 on November 3 in the following days.
Bitcoin has quickly recovered, currently trading at $69,145, according to data from CoinGecko.
Bitcoin's price volatility is related to the narrowing odds between U.S. presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on the crypto-native betting platform Polymarket.
At the beginning of October, Trump surpassed Harris on Polymarket to become the potential winner, with his odds reaching 67% on October 30. This figure has now sharply declined to 56%.
The crypto industry views this Republican presidential candidate as a more favorable choice, as Trump has pledged—to name a few promises—to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and make the U.S. the 'global crypto capital.'
Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Harris has taken a more moderate stance on cryptocurrency, stating she would support a regulatory framework for the sector to appeal to Black male voters.
Trump's odds on Polymarket are now more in line with polling data, showing he is nearly tied with Harris—according to FiveThirtyEight, Harris was leading by 0.9 percentage points as of November 3.
Some traders speculate that if Trump wins the election, Bitcoin could reach $100,000, while analysts at Bernstein suggest that a Harris victory could significantly depress Bitcoin prices before the end of the year.
In the short term after the election, crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades predicts that Bitcoin could see 'at least 10% price volatility, depending on who ultimately wins the election.'
