As of 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 3, with just days to go before the U.S. election, betting markets show a razor-thin contest between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris.
🔶 Close Race for Congress and White House: Betting Markets Show Surprising Odds
According to data from Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market, Trump currently has a 51% chance of winning, while Harris trails closely at 49%. In key battleground states, Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, while Harris commands Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennsylvania stands as a tie, according to Kalshi bettors.
Kalshi data also hints at a possible Republican sweep, with a 32% chance of the GOP gaining control of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives. Despite this, Kalshi still projects that Harris will win the popular vote, while Trump maintains an advantage in the Electoral College. Polymarket, another prediction platform using the Polygon network, shows similar results, giving Trump a slight edge at 54% to Harris’s 46.1%. The battleground states vary slightly here, with Trump ahead in four of the six; he leads in Pennsylvania with 53%, compared to the tie seen on Kalshi. Polymarket bettors are somewhat less confident in a Republican sweep, assigning a 34% chance to a GOP trifecta and only an 18% chance for a Democratic one.
Meanwhile, Trump’s implied winning probability on covers.com stands at 55.6%, with Harris at 47.6%. Over at bet365 via betohio.com, the odds are even more favorable for Trump, placing him at a 62% chance against Harris’s 42%.
With the betting odds seesawing, these close margins hint at the stakes in this election, though they may be less about clear support and more about a divided American electorate. The dynamics of Harris leading the popular vote and Trump leading in the Electoral College underscore the ongoing ideological rift in the country. Does either candidate truly have a decisive edge?
The betting market projections may underscore a struggle between change and continuity, but can they truly capture the underlying complexities of American politics? The potential GOP trifecta and Democratic hold on Congress highlight a deep ideological divide, raising questions about the election's broader impact on U.S. political discourse. With Election Day just around the corner, it remains to be seen if these predictions will shape the country’s future trajectory—or if they’re simply a mirror to the nation’s fractured politics.
