This week brings two pivotal events that are bound to shape market sentiment: the U.S. presidential election and the upcoming interest rate decision. Among retail investors, there’s a strong belief that the election outcome will spark dramatic moves in Bitcoin—many speculate that a Harris victory would lead to a steep 50% drop, while a Trump win could send Bitcoin soaring toward unprecedented highs. But regardless of who takes the White House, the Bitcoin market’s underlying structure is unlikely to be disrupted.
The election results, expected on November 5, could be announced the same night, recalling the chaos of the previous election when Trump’s win triggered extreme market swings within a single day. Many traders were caught off guard, with positions liquidating as prices surged and plunged. Following that, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on November 6-7 adds an additional layer of complexity. If there’s a rate cut, it could inject a fresh wave of momentum, whereas a hold would likely keep the market aligned with its recent path. Analysts anticipate a 25-basis-point cut based on employment data, but combining both the election results and rate decision could create unpredictable turbulence.
Ultimately, the dealer’s hand in shaping Bitcoin’s direction remains steadfast, unfazed by political shifts. This market has endured months of consolidation, forced selling, and strategic accumulation, building a structure that won’t crumble over a single event. On November 6, after the election results settle in, volatility may fall short of dramatic expectations, as seen repeatedly, such as during Trump’s participation at the Bitcoin conference and previous rate decisions. For dealers, the election serves as a tool to leverage volatility, create narratives, and amplify market sentiment. Much like the rollout of ETFs, it provides a perfect stage for dealers to maximize impact, tell compelling stories, and capitalize on heightened market differences.
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