Less than a week ago, Bitcoin was on a tear, reaching $73,500—close to its all-time high from earlier this year. But things have quickly taken a turn. After a sharp fall on Friday to just under $69,000, BTC briefly rebounded to $71,600 before falling again. It now sits around $67,700, which means it has shed about $4,000 since Friday evening. The timing raises the question: Is the upcoming US election contributing to BTC’s sudden dip?
Political Uncertainty and Market Reactions
Political events often create market turbulence, and Bitcoin, as a global asset, is no exception. The lead-up to the US election has seen a tightening race, with Donald Trump’s odds for re-election declining sharply in the past few days.
According to ElectionBettingOdds,
Trump’s lead dropped by 9.8% over the past week, with a notable decline beginning Friday—around the same time BTC started its slide. Trump currently holds a narrow lead of 51.7% to Kamala Harris’s 47.9%.
Meanwhile, blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket paints a similar picture, with Trump’s odds dropping from a high of 66.9% last Wednesday to 53.7% recently, a loss of over 13%.
Why Trump’s Odds Matter for Bitcoin
Donald Trump has taken an unexpectedly pro-Bitcoin stance, advocating for cryptocurrency-friendly policies and even hinting at purchasing BTC for US reserves. His shift in position from his previous anti-crypto rhetoric has appealed to the crypto community, and the idea of a pro-crypto administration has encouraged optimism around BTC’s long-term value in the US market.
With Trump’s odds now declining, there’s a growing sense of uncertainty about what a potential Kamala Harris administration might mean for crypto. While Harris has not been outspoken about digital assets, the lack of clarity on her stance has some investors feeling wary, given recent crackdowns on crypto in the US under the current administration. This unease may be causing some BTC holders to de-risk ahead of the election.
Election-Driven Volatility in Crypto Markets
Historically, major political events like US elections have fueled BTC volatility. As we approach Tuesday’s vote, the race remains unpredictable, adding tension across financial markets. With BTC already under pressure, a decisive win for either candidate could trigger new price swings in the days following the election.
What Should Traders Expect?
In the short term, Bitcoin may continue to see fluctuations as the political landscape shifts. With traders and investors anticipating more clarity post-election, we could see volatility spike in BTC and other cryptocurrencies. Here’s what to keep in mind:
Increased Price Swings: Expect more volatility over the coming days as the election outcome solidifies.
Potential for Support and Resistance Levels: BTC might find temporary support around the $67,000 level, but a break below could push it lower if uncertainty continues.
Watch Political Announcements: Keep an eye on statements or policies from candidates about crypto, as these could influence price sentiment.
For now, the best approach may be caution—traders should brace for sudden moves and avoid over-leveraging positions. Regardless of the outcome, Bitcoin’s trajectory is likely to remain dynamic through this period.
