I get it—you’re seeing billions pour into spot Bitcoin ETFs and thinking, “Shouldn’t this send Bitcoin’s price through the roof?”
It sounds logical, but there’s more to the story. To understand why the price isn’t moving as expected, let’s break down some of the market dynamics and strategies that the big players are using.
Advanced Strategies at Play, Not Market Manipulation!
First, this isn’t about market manipulation or “suppressing” Bitcoin’s price.
I’ve talked to many experts lately—guys from hedge funds, experts who built a crypto exchange, and guys who managed crypto market-making. The essence: I can tell you firsthand that this is not about market manipulation but a typical play in sophisticated markets. Here’s what's happening!
Cash-and-carry trades
What’s happening here is a classic financial strategy called the cash-and-carry trade.
In a cash-and-carry trade, investors buy spot Bitcoin (which is where the ETFs come in) but simultaneously short Bitcoin futures. This way, they make a “risk-free” profit off the price difference between the spot and futures markets.
They’re not trying to push the price up or down—they aim to profit off the spread between spot and futures prices. So, while billions may be flowing into spot ETFs, it doesn’t impact the price in the way most would expect.
Spot Buying + Futures Shorting = Neutral on Price
These big players are balancing out their positions. When they buy spot Bitcoin but short the futures market, they create what’s known as a delta-neutral position. In simpler terms, they’re hedging to cancel out any price movement risk. They’re not betting on Bitcoin going up or down. Their only goal is to capture the difference in price between the spot and futures markets—nothing more, nothing less.
Because of this approach, the market doesn’t see a price pump even if billions flow into Bitcoin ETFs. Open interest in CME Bitcoin futures has been hitting record highs, which tells us big funds are heavily invested in this cash-and-carry strategy right now.
Why Futures Are Key to Bitcoin’s Price
Bitcoin futures trading on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has exploded, and this isn’t like your typical crypto exchange trading. CME’s Bitcoin futures are regulated, which attracts large institutional investors and hedge funds—many of whom prefer a delta-neutral strategy. They see Bitcoin as a way to profit from volatility without actually taking on the risk of price fluctuations.
CME’s all-time-high open interest in Bitcoin futures signals that institutional players are indeed offsetting spot inflows with futures shorts. This strategy dampens the price impact from the spot market.
But This Isn’t Forever—Bitcoin’s Strength is Still Intact
Just because these trades are suppressing prices now doesn’t mean Bitcoin’s growth will be stalled in the long term.
Bitcoin’s fundamentals—scarcity, decentralization, and resistance to fiat inflation—are as strong as ever. Once these cash-and-carry trades eventually level off, organic demand from retail, institutions, and even governments will push Bitcoin’s price higher over time.
So, yes, the future is bullish. While short-term strategies are currently limiting price action, real demand is building up—and once it takes over, we’ll see the price respond.
