1. Bitcoin Price Peak Projection by EGRAG: Market analyst EGRAG suggests that Bitcoin's next peak could occur between mid to late 2025. This forecast relies on an analysis of four distinct Bitcoin cycles and Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly how BTC has historically moved after surpassing major resistance points.
2. Bitcoin Cycle Analysis Overview:
Cycle 1 (2011-2013): After Bitcoin closed a full candle above the Fibonacci 1 level, it reached its peak in 245 days (8 monthly bars) at $1,242 in November 2013.
Cycle 2 (2013-2017): Following the same pattern, Bitcoin peaked 214 days (7 monthly bars) post-candle close above Fibonacci 1, reaching $19,785 in December 2017.
Cycle 3 (2020-2021): Bitcoin's highest point was in November 2021 at $68,997, marking 335 days (11 monthly bars) after closing a full candle above Fibonacci 1. Some analysts, however, suggest April 2021 as a potential peak.
3. Current Cycle Forecast:
Based on previous cycles, EGRAG projects two possible timelines for Bitcoin’s next peak:
June 2025: Calculated using the average cycle length of 265 days from a candle close above Fibonacci 1 to peak.
September 2025: Modeled on Cycle 3's extended length of 335 days.
4. Fibonacci Retracement Significance: EGRAG’s analysis emphasizes Fibonacci 1 as a critical resistance level in each cycle. A breakthrough here typically leads to further gains toward Fibonacci 1.618 or higher, marking substantial price increases.
5. Key Levels for the Fourth Cycle: EGRAG estimates that surpassing Fibonacci 1 (currently $69,725) could drive Bitcoin to new highs, with a potential target near the Fibonacci 1.618 level at $176,061. However, analyst Peter Brandt has offered an alternate view, suggesting Bitcoin may have already reached its peak for the current cycle.
6. Final Notes: EGRAG stresses patience, as market activity in the coming months may refine these timelines. Investors should monitor any full candle closes above Fibonacci 1, as this will be pivotal in determining Bitcoin's trajectory toward its next cycle top, anticipated in mid to late 2025.
