The altcoin Notcoin ($NOT ), a prominent project within the TON ecosystem, has been experiencing a significant decline recently. As of today, NOT trades at $0.0076, marking a 3% drop over the past week. Various indicators and on-chain data point toward persistent selling pressure, raising concerns of a further decline.
Whales Begin to Reduce Notcoin Holdings
Data reveals that major investors, or "whales" — defined as addresses holding over 0.1% of an asset’s circulating supply — have significantly decreased their Notcoin holdings over the past week. This shift in large investor net flow, a metric showing whether these investors are accumulating or selling an asset, underscores a noteworthy trend: whale addresses are shedding their assets.
A reduction in large investor net flow is generally seen as a warning sign. When large investors begin selling substantial volumes, it can signal a loss of confidence in the asset’s future performance, potentially triggering accelerated selling by retail investors who are quick to respond to whale activity.
Retail Investor Confidence Dwindles
The reduction in whale holdings is particularly significant, as it often impacts the sentiment of smaller investors. When retail investors notice whales exiting their positions, they frequently interpret this as a sign of further price declines. This perceived loss of confidence can amplify sell-offs, leading to a faster decrease in the asset’s price.
Short-Term Investors Show Declining Holding Periods
In addition to the whale sell-offs, short-term investors (STHs) — defined as those who have held their Notcoins for less than 30 days — have been reducing their holding periods in recent weeks. When the average holding period of $STHs falls, it often suggests an eagerness to exit positions quickly, creating a rapid cycle of selling pressure.
With short-term investors holding a significant portion of Notcoin’s circulating supply, the shorter holding durations add another layer of risk. The high turnover among these investors could lead to further downward pressure on the price as they opt to sell sooner rather than later.
Increased Selling Pressure Signals Potential Price Risk
The combination of whale sell-offs, declining retail investor confidence, and decreasing holding periods among short-term investors suggests that Notcoin is facing a challenging period. If this trend continues, the cumulative selling pressure could drive the asset toward further declines, amplifying the current bearish outlook.
