Introduction
The simplest and most powerful long term relationship or indicator we have for the price of bitcoin is the DXY (the dollar index against a basket of other main currencies comprised of US trade partners). Therefore long term chart formations in the DXY can help crypto traders or investors make very profitable long term moves. Those that ignore this inverse relationship do so at their peril.
Current analysis
A pain view of the top chart shows two fat pairs of arrows that show when bitcoin went down and DXY went up. It also has two skinny arrows that show when DXY falls Bitcoin rises. Clear and irrefutable. What is up for debate right now is if the descending triangle I note is valid. There are several good DXY ideas out there right now but none seem to have taken this wider view:DDXY/SKYLP
DXY Zoom In
Everything is basically on the daily chart. DXY is actually at its 4th lower high and this current high is stalling right at the previous support of the double top of April to June, 2024. The indicators show clear hidden bearish divergence. For those that need a review, here is the simple divergence primer:
Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal)
Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator
Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator
Hidden (Trend Continuation)
Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator
Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator
Hidden bearish divergence suggests the downtrend will continue and DXY will continue to fall.
Weekly DXY
Guess what? The weekly DXY looks like hell as well. This rising trend line was previously acting as support and is now acting as resistance.
Conclusion
I see no reason why the powerful and clear inverse relationship between dxy and bitcoin should not continue. Basically everything in the “anti-fiat” or “weak dollar” categories should act predictably while this descending triangle plays itself out. This trade or posture doesn’t require fancy indicators or complex theory. Just basic charting supported by some minimalistic indicators to add a bit of richness to the technical analysis and fundamental relationship between Bitcoin and the DXY.
I am long crypto in one form or another. I have a coupe of rotations planed out for the next year. Wish me luck. Please see linked ideas for some other ideas that inform my current thinking.
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