The outcome of the US Presidential election could have lasting effects on the American Crypto shape as well
According to experts, the White House is one of the major influencers of the future of crypto, which means the results of US elections president can have some effects on the prices of Bitcoin and altcoins.
As seen on prediction market Polymarket, Donald Trump holds better odds to win than vice president Kamala Harris.
Former Vice president of the United States, Kamala Harris and XRPL co-founder supported Harris and firm is involved in the SEC.ind case regarding status of XRP TIMING MISSING.
On November 5, US citizens will head to the voting polls to cast their vote for a new president and their vote could prove important in regards to the future of the crypto industry and therefore price prediction of Bitcoin (BTC). While the importance of crypto, and how exactly it should be controlled in the us, was not really an issue four years ago, it is no longer an election which ignores such matters.
The battle of the crypto deimos rage entwined at the ideological level, while US President Donald trump and present Vice president Kamala Harris seem divided as pertains to how to approach the crypto space going by their assertions on the topic.
As the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) becomes more assertive toward the sector, it sure will matter who win the polls as that person will determine how the asset class will be treated in the years to come.
According to prediction markets, Trump will win the elections. Polymarket, a kind of crypto betting and prediction market, puts the odds of Trumpâs returning to office at 63.7% and Harris at 36.1%. Until October 4, the odds of a Trump recruitment waned steadily, and those of Harris had been gradually rising, however, the trend changed from that point onwards in favor of the Republican âcalling the shotsâ.
During Pilot Life, Galaxy Research provided a panel of experts with a detailed narrative of the potential consequences for the crypto sector in relation to regulation and other key themes in the event of a Trump or Harris victory.
Trump is more favorable for crypto, Galaxy Research says. Thorn, Alex, Head of Research from Galaxy said, I posted on X a policy scorecard for Trump and Harris on crypto issues and what has been done to both. This scorecard lists several factors that influence both the SEC and tax issues or Bitcoin mining, and so on, what the current administration was, what the Harris administration would be, and what the Trump administration would be.
However, Thorn remarked, if the outcome were a Trump victory, that would be âundoubtedly more favorable for the industry,â Harris could also have some positives in her administration, displayed some optimism to her winning too.
It indicates that Coinbase and Ripple have allocated around $100 million towards making attacks on the presidential candidates in the 2024 elections an issue. Approximately all the funds have been directed towards PACs that advocate for pro-crypto candidates. According to Campaign and Lobbyist Finance Database, non-profit Johnson Public Policy, they state the firms together with the amount of the donation and which party it was towards the repubs or the dems. Three months ago, a cofounder of different payment remittance firm Ripple which has been engaged in court wrangling with SEC for 4 years has actually endorsed Californian senator Kamala Harris. A possible endorsement that may have some weight in the election given Christian Larsen is one of the cofounders of Ripple and he is the firm's executive Chairman. Ripple executive Larsens Christian previously already backed Harris and pledged $10m of riveting XRP the firmâs native token to Democratic Congress womanâs political action committee. Introducing American technology throughout the world was payment firm ripples executive larsen crusade for under Harris has been all about Regarding his election promises, Harris has stated that under her presidency the approach to democratic lawmakers will change âfor the goodâ.
On the elections, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated: âwe have to stop engaging in this administrationâs unwarranted crypto war,â arguing that the company will collaborate with both Democrats and Republicans in pushing for crypto-friendly policies.
In a statement made by Eric Balchunas, the Senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, applications for exchange-traded funds for XRP and Solana (SOL) tokens âwonât happenâ as long Kamala Harris is in charge regardless of the issuer.
At the same time, the odds of approval for ETFs that would track XRP and SOL may dramatically improve if Trump would be re-elected. Balchunas stated that the win of Donald Trump can provide a âdecent chanceâ to more crypto ETFs.
Nate Geraci, The ETF Store President, was of the similar view and stated:
Itâs hard to imagine a Harris-led government overseeing the launch of any new spot crypto, especially not for the time that the election is sustained.
ETFs for xrp, sol, & ltc have recently been submitted for registration by the issuersâŠ
The white house has to be active to push for crypto regulation
Kyla Curley, a crypto profession and partner at a global advisory firm StoneTurn in an interview with FXstreet stated that since the past, politics have not been the core of digital assets but jurisdictional enforcement, which still does affect the US crypto space.
âThe SEC has been at the forefront of enforcement of crypto related incidents, but there is also question as to when, how and who will come up with these new frameworks to remain ahead of the global regulatory and financial scene, and who will be responsible for the enforcement that comes out of these frameworks,â Curley said.
âItâs a tricky area that has mostly been in limbo as we await the outcome of the several bills being wet on Congress,â Curley said. âEven though the White House is one important component in pushing the regulatory agenda, the dynamics are equally shaped by the conduct of people in the House and in the Senate,â she continued.
In terms of US politics, the integration of cryptocurrency into the politics of the US features most prominently in the current crypto cycle. Although itâs a first in the industry, it may be beneficial in the long-term regulatory goals, experts opine.
The increasing power of crypto in politics can lead to better regulatory policies
According to a report by FXStreet, Wintermute OTC Trader Jake Ostrovskis stated that a Trump win may lead to an increased level of deregulation which could lead to a more favorable pattern for crypto businesses. âThe former US President would be expected to put more emphasis on financial innovations as opposed to regulation, though this may bear the risk of providing less protection to investors,â he noted.
Indeed, the absence of the incumbent SEC Chair Gary Gensler may result in less aggressive SEC enforcement actions.
On the other hand, there is high probability that Kamala Harris would lead into more balanced policies and there would further importance to looking after the consumer and their interests and the existing financial laws and the regulation of financial institutions would still be retained, according to Ostrovskis.
âThis indicates a potential incorporation of the momentâs administrationâs guarantees in the bottom to top enforcement strategy with regards to crypto,â he adds further.
According to Ostrovskis, âthe money coming from crypto PACs and other pro-crypto organizations is evidence of the political penetration of cryptocurrency. This might accelerate the rate at which more benefits are tailored towards businesses within the sector.â
Viable space for Democrats and Republicans to work together on crypto regulation
When questioned about possibilities of cooperation between both parties to advance regulation for crypto assets, Ostrovskis interprets it in the following way: âOne way in which collaboration can begin is that both political camps have been given funds from pro-crypto people and this opens up a door for both camps to collaborate on making reasonable and just laws.
