Metrics Ventures, a secondary fund in the crypto market, October market observation guide
1/ The market has continued its disorderly consolidation for 6 months. The trading volume has occasionally increased but is still sluggish overall. A small number of altcoins have tried to develop independent trends, but due to the obvious lack of liquidity, most of the attempts have ended in failure.
2/ Although the industry is in a state of chaos comparable to that in mid-2023, what is quietly happening is a fundamental change in the flow path of funds on the market and the mentality of participating players. The on-chain profit effect within the month is already good. In our view, the sector trend split since the beginning of 2024 has been repeatedly confirmed for more than 6 months, and the industry's shift may be inevitable.
3/ At the current point in time, we believe that the direction of the US and Chinese capital markets, the election and the upcoming FOMC are not events worth gambling on in the digital currency market. Returning to the essence of funds and chips, unless there is a new black swan event, the upward trend of encryption will continue. Avoid the net value wear caused by the confusing long-short game at the end of disordered fluctuations, and holding chips and waiting is the best strategy.
Review and comments on the overall market situation and market trends
The market from September to now has actually given us many important signals:
① After several confirmations of the capital side (i.e., currency price), fundamental side (project updates and innovations), and information side (i.e., offline conferences) since March 2024, more cryptocurrency market funds have finally chosen the retro form of pure chip gambling, returning to their original intentions. This is another nail in the coffin of the so-called value currency. At present, the only remaining long-term main lines in the industry are still BTC, casinos, and payments (stacking).
② The bottom-level chips of Ethereum began to loosen fatally several weeks after the upward trend broke. Considering the recent scale of Ethereum ETF and reasonable expectations for the future, the real test of Ethereum has already arrived. From the perspective of the industry, only excessive liquidity injection and exclusivity of gameplay updates far exceeding the previous round of Defi can happen in Ethereum to save this decline. The time left for Ethereum is quietly counting down.
③The pure chip rebound of altcoins is not smooth, and the overall success rate and the trading volume attracted are too shrunk, so that the VC/ANTI-VC sector is once again in a dilemma of ice and fire. In fact, the capital inflow/outflow path of the digital currency industry has undergone what may be a decisive change in 2024, further curbing the VCs' later exit space, and the situation may deteriorate faster and deeper than expected.
④ In terms of the overall market, fluctuations are becoming more disorderly. In fact, there are no strong external factors to predict whether the market goes up or down, and the weakness of the market is also evident from the trading volume. In the stage of disorderly fluctuations, both long and short positions have no value in risking money. We focus on price behavior near support and resistance levels to avoid unnecessary wear and tear.
The trend is surging, and those who follow the trend will prosper. Overall, the consensus that casinos are the essence of a global reservoir is an inevitable trend, and Liquid Ventures must follow the trend. We have already established an outpost for the first step, and in the future we may further perceive the future space of the industry.
