Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Wenser (@wenser2010)

There is no doubt that when the market is in the "big market shows alone" stage, the only performance opportunity falls on the Meme coin project, and more and more market attention begins to shift to the Meme coin sector.

Data shows that the search volume for "Bitcoin" on the search engine Google reached a one-year low in the week of October 12, and the search index dropped to 33 at the weekend, while the search index for "memecoins" was 77 during the same period. Although it has not yet broken through the historical high (100) set in late October 2023, compared with Bitcoin, Meme coins have undoubtedly become the most concerned topic and field for the general public in recent times.

The following questions are: Is there an excessive bubble in the Meme coin track? How high is the ceiling of the Meme coin project? With such a dense "order-calling craze", has the Meme coin track reached its peak? Odaily Planet Daily will briefly analyze the Meme coin track in this article and look at the future market space performance of Meme coins from a data dimension.

Meme coin sector performance: market capitalization accounts for less than 2.5%, but the top 100 market capitalization accounts for 10%

According to data from the Coingecko website, the Meme coin sector currently refers to approximately US$58 billion. Compared with the total industry market value of cryptocurrencies of US$2.354 trillion, it accounts for only 2.4639%, less than 2.5%.

Previously, Ansem, a crypto KOL and cryptocurrency trader known as the "Meme Coin Shouting King" and "The First Meme Dog to Promote Products", once wrote: "In general, insufficient funds flow into Meme coins (US$50 billion out of a US$2.2 trillion market value, accounting for 2.5%), and they have the momentum to gradually gain more attention.

The best trades over the next 4 months will determine which meme coins have the following characteristics: 1) long accumulation period; 2) rabid community on platform X (i.e. Twitter); and 3) easy for the average person to relate to.”

It is worth noting that someone in the comment section mentioned that MOG meets the three requirements mentioned by Ansem. As the "MOG call leader", Ansem did not hesitate to affirm this positively, saying: "So True."

Screenshot of Ansem's speech

In stark contrast to the market capitalization share, more and more Meme coin projects can be seen among the top 100 cryptocurrency companies by market capitalization.

Information from the Coingecko website shows that the top Meme coin projects currently account for 10% of the top 100 projects by market value. The top projects are: DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, WIF, BONK, FLOKI, POPCAT, BRETT, NEIRO (lowercase project), and MOG; among them, among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market value, DOGE ranks 9th with a market value of US$16.57 billion.

If the cryptocurrency industry is compared to a country, the Meme coin "economic system" currently only accounts for 2.5% of the total GDP of this "country's" overall economic size; but among the top 100 "companies" by market value in this "economic system", 10 "companies" belong to the Meme coin track.

In comparison, in 2023, the total revenue of the Fortune 500 companies was $18.1 trillion, equivalent to 71% of the US GDP that year; in 2024, the total revenue of the top 500 companies in the United States by market value rose to $18.8 trillion, an increase of about 4% over the previous year; the total revenue of the listed companies was equivalent to two-thirds of the US GDP.

Of course, it is undoubtedly ridiculous to compare the cryptocurrency industry, whose market value is just over 2 trillion, with the US economy, whose GDP is as high as tens of trillions. But we can clearly see that compared with the relatively fixed market value range of the cryptocurrency industry (2 trillion to 3 trillion US dollars), the market value of the Meme coin sector is undoubtedly in a strong growth trend in this cycle.

Contributors to the Meme coin track: Solana ecosystem + pump.fun's pioneering "one-click coin issuance" model

According to market data, Meme Coin outperformed all other sectors of cryptocurrency in 2024 and showed no signs of slowing down afterwards.

Statistics related to an article in June this year

According to data from the Step Finance website, 497,153 new token projects have been created on the Solana network since September 12 (that is, in the past month).

Solana Floor previously stated that nearly 20,000 new token projects were launched on Solana on October 8, and most of them were Meme coin projects. On October 12, it also stated that the total market value of the Meme coin sector on Solana exceeded US$10 billion, and the 24-hour trading volume was approximately US$2.3 billion.

At its core, the prosperity of Meme Coin is mainly due to the following three aspects:

• Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF have been approved one after another, and mainstream funds choose to centralize

• Many crypto VC projects have been “launching tokens without any results”, further sucking market liquidity

• Solana ecosystem construction continues, pump.fun pioneers the "one-click coin issuance" model

Because mainstream funds are concentrated in ETF investment portfolios, newcomers to the cryptocurrency industry will focus more on the Meme coin sector, which has a dissemination effect, wealth-creating effect, and herd effect; because many crypto VC projects did not have any outstanding achievements and results after experiencing the previous bear market, but wanted to "grasp the bull market opportunity and issue coins as soon as possible to make a profit", so they lined up to issue coins and then disappeared, which further sucked the already limited market liquidity. Retail investors in the market are even more reluctant to invest their real money in these spiraling "value coins", which led to a further vicious cycle; and driven by the continuous construction of the Solana ecosystem and pump.fun's pioneering "one-click coin issuance" model, on the one hand, the threshold for coin issuance has been further lowered, truly realizing the vision of "everyone can issue coins"; on the other hand, Meme coins have become a "new growth point" for different blockchain network ecosystems. For example, TRON, Base, SUI and other ecosystems have gained great market attention, capital liquidity and ecological attention by relying on Meme coins.

The premise for the establishment of the Meme coin super cycle: the whole nation is in a frenzy, the market value accounts for nearly 10%, and a $100 billion project appears

The author personally believes that in this cycle, if cryptocurrency gradually enters the bull market stage, according to the normal distribution law, the market value of Meme coin should at least be close to or equal to that of the top 100 projects by market value, that is, the market value of the Meme coin sector should be around 8%-10% of the overall market value of cryptocurrency.

Previously, the peak market value of the cryptocurrency industry was over 3 trillion US dollars in November 2021. In other words, under highly optimistic circumstances, the potential market of the Meme coin sector still has 4-5 times of growth space.

Industry OG, crypto KOL, and investor Murad once mentioned in a speech: "The super cycle of Meme coins is not a prophecy about the future, but something that is happening now." Not only that, he also mentioned that among the cryptocurrencies in the TOP300 market capitalization, only 43 tokens have better returns than Bitcoin, and among them, Meme coins are undoubtedly the main sector.

Murad September speech data

In a recent tweet, Murad mentioned: “The number of Meme coin holders in the Ethereum and Solana ecosystems is growing rapidly. We are still in the early stages of the Meme coin super cycle.”

Meme coin projects with the fastest growth in the number of holders in the past 30 days

Neso, a crypto KOL and veteran player in the Meme coin track, previously published an article expressing his personal views on the subsequent development of the Meme coin sector, saying: "What kind of market can be called a meme coin super cycle? At least the following key indicators must be met:

The total market value of the meme coin track reaches or exceeds $300 billion (which will be about 5%-8% of the total market value of cryptocurrencies at the peak of this cycle’s bull market);

At least one meme coin with a market value of more than $100 billion will appear;

There will be 5-10 meme coins with a market value of more than $10 billion;

There will be at least one meme coin that is reported by the global mainstream media, sought after by celebrities, and popular among the public. "

It is worth mentioning that the market value of DOGE, the "ancestor of Meme coin", peaked on May 8, 2021. With the help of Musk, the "technology madman" who was in the global spotlight at the time, and a group of fanatical fans, its market value once exceeded 100 billion US dollars, reaching a single DOGE price of 0.7316 US dollars, and a total market value of 107 billion US dollars. This Meme coin project alone accounted for about 4.65% of the overall market value of cryptocurrencies at the time. Although the development stage of the cryptocurrency industry at that time was completely different from today, and the market value of the cryptocurrency industry had not reached its peak at that time, it still has extraordinary reference value for the development "ceiling" of the current Meme coin project. (At the same time, the price of Bitcoin was around 57,361 US dollars at the time; the overall market value of cryptocurrencies was about 2.3 trillion US dollars)

We have reason to believe that the conditions for the full establishment of the Meme coin super cycle are still not mature. At a time when the world's political and economic situation is becoming increasingly tense, cryptocurrency, as an asset with certain safe-haven properties, is bound to receive more and more attention.

In the future, with the support of the national carnival atmosphere, it is entirely possible that 1-3 Meme coin projects with a market value of 100 billion will appear, and the overall market value of the Meme coin sector may be expected to exceed 300-500 billion US dollars.

After all, as CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju mentioned: “As market interest in meme-related digital assets remains high, searches for memecoins may return to their previous all-time highs by the end of October 2024.”

Summary: Meme coin super cycle will arrive in 2025

A report by crypto asset management agency Matrixport shows that the global adoption rate of cryptocurrencies is approaching an important milestone, with 7.51% of the world's population currently using cryptocurrencies. It is expected that by 2025, this figure will exceed 8%, marking the transition of cryptocurrencies from a niche market to the mainstream financial system.

In addition, CMC Research, a research department of CoinMarketCap, mentioned in its Q3 market research report that “Bitcoin’s bull market cycle is accelerating, and this bull market is 100 days earlier than the typical four-year cycle. Various factors indicate that Bitcoin may enter a super cycle, driven by institutional adoption, BTC trading platform exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and changing market dynamics. This bull market is expected to peak in mid-May to mid-June 2025. Although there is some acceleration in the early stage, there are signs that infrastructure growth is slowing, which may indicate that broader market dynamics are changing.”

As Murad has previously stated, 2025 will be "the year when Meme coins rise and fall like a parabola."

In other words, a bull market is expected in 2025, and Meme Coin will shine in the no-longer-niche industry of cryptocurrency.