Author: Mensh, ChainCatcher

Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher

SCR was officially launched as Binance's first pre-market trading project. After opening, it experienced a sharp rise and fall, and is currently consolidating around $1.1. As of press time, the pre-market trading price of SCR is $1.186.

On October 8, Binance and Scroll officially announced that the token SCR will become Binance's first pre-market trading project and announced its token economics. As soon as the news was released, the community questioned that Scroll's airdrop quota was too low and the Lauchpool quota was too high, which was a gesture of goodwill to Binance. In response, Sandy, a core contributor to Scroll, tweeted that Binance is the best channel to achieve global distribution. It will open up upstream and downstream channels and help Scroll develop to the next stage, especially in emerging markets. Scroll's ETH deposits and withdrawals are now available on Binance, and soon, stablecoin support on Scroll will also be available directly on Binance. This listing on Binance will help Scroll achieve global expansion.

Later, Scroll co-founder Zhang Ye also tweeted to refute the view of "kneeling to CEX". He said that this is a strategic decision to establish a partnership to promote growth and gain broader support, and Binance has strong support for the entry and exit of stablecoins. Secondly, the timing of the current coin issuance is completely different from the situation when ETH, Arbitrum and Optimism were launched, and CEX does not have the same leverage in terms of distribution. He also explained that Launchpool's budget comes from growth, not community airdrops, and does not affect the rights and interests of the community. Token distribution is not a one-time event, it is a growth lever, and project construction requires long-term growth. Scroll's technical roadmap and the next stage of ecological growth planning will be released in a few weeks.

However, this response still seems to have failed to quell the differences within the community. In response to this, the three co-founders of Scroll will go online in the community at 3 pm tomorrow Beijing time to respond to recent questions about the release of SCR.

So, how are Scroll tokens distributed specifically?

Scroll Token Economics Quick Guide

The total supply of SCR is 1 billion, with an initial circulation of 190 million (19.00% of the total). The Scroll token distribution is 15% airdrop, 35% ecosystem and growth, and 10% Scroll DAO's treasury. 2% of them will be circulated at the TGE, and the remaining 8% will be evenly unlocked within 4 years after the TGE. Binance's Launchpool accounts for 5.5%, and of the remaining 19.5%, 2.5% will be circulated at the TGE, and the remaining 17% will be evenly unlocked within 4 years after the TGE. The Scroll Foundation accounts for 10%, of which 2% will be circulated at the TGE, and the remaining 8% will be evenly unlocked within 4 years after the TGE. Core contributors account for 23%, which will start unlocking one year after the TGE and will be fully unlocked within 4 years, and investors account for 17%, which will start unlocking one year after the TGE and will be fully unlocked within 4 years.

The initial circulation consists of 7% from the first airdrop, 2% from Scroll DAO, 5.5% from Binance mining, 2.5% from the ecosystem, and 2% from the Scroll Foundation. The specific token distribution ratio is shown in the figure:

https://scroll.io/blog/scr-token

https://x.com/CryptoKris666/status/1843937850229952817

In terms of mining allocation, BNB has a daily mining quota of 23.375 million, accounting for 85%. FDUSD has a daily mining quota of 4.125 million, accounting for 15%. The farming period is from 2024-10-09 00:00 (UTC) to 2024-10-10 23:59 (UTC), and pre-market trading starts from 2024-10-11 10:00 (UTC).

Airdrop

7% of the total Scroll token supply is allocated for the first airdrop, and 8% of the total token supply will be reserved for future airdrops, which are planned to take place over the next 12-18 months. The snapshot time for the airdrop is October 19, 2024, and the claim date for the airdrop is October 22, 2024.

Scroll airdrops, along with ZKSync, StarkNet, and Linea, are among the most active airdrops, with a significantly higher airdrop ratio than similar projects that were listed earlier (ZKSync airdrops 15.6%, StarkNet 18%, Arbitrum 11.6%, Optimism 5.97%). Scroll has experienced a long airdrop breeding period since the launch of the test network. Airdrop interactions began in May, and TVL began to soar in June. It needs to complete tasks such as using Aave, liquidity inflows, and bridging. According to preliminary data, more than 78,000 users may be eligible for airdrops.

https://defillama.com/chain/Scroll

But some people are also worried that many of them are fake TVLs that come for airdrops and may shrink after TGE. Before turning to organic traffic, the end of the airdrop era may damage the value and activity on the chain.

As of 18:00 on October 12, the points of Scroll users are shown in the figure below. As can be seen from the figure, more than half of the users have less than 50 points, and more than three quarters of the users have less than 200 points. It can be seen that there are quite a few users who have flocked to Scroll in a short period of time.

https://scrollstat.xyz/

What impact does SCR pre-market trading have on post-listing prices?

At present, Binance has not announced the specific time of TGE. If TGE is before Scroll’s airdrop, the opening circulation ratio will be deducted from 7% of the airdrop, which means that the initial circulation will drop from 19% to 12%. Or TGE will be synchronized with the time of Scroll’s airdrop, but this also means that Scroll’s pre-market trading time may be very long. At the same time, in this case, the initial circulation will remain unchanged at 19%. In either case, Binance Launchpool will occupy a considerable proportion, at least 28.94% of the initial circulation. As the first project after Binance launched pre-market trading, will the price anchor of pre-market trading help make the official opening price more reasonable?

On the positive side, since the circulating chips in the pre-market trading market only come from the mining output of Binance Launchpool, if this pre-market trading has a good money-making effect, it will also be a stimulus for projects that will be listed on Binance Launchpool in the future. At the same time, it will also encourage more users to participate in the mining of Binance Launchpool.

But at the same time, SCR's "high FDV, low circulation" characteristics are characterized by the market as an institutional currency. Some researchers compare it with ZKsync and Taiko, and believe that SCR is likely to continue to bear institutional selling pressure and continue to fall. Speculators attracted by Binance's pre-market trading and a large proportion of airdrops will only become the sellers after SCR TGE. Judging from the current pre-market trading situation, there is no obvious selling pressure.

Market Cap Prediction

For the estimation of SCR's market value, three perspectives can be used as reference: comparable projects, pre-market transactions and KOL valuation.

As both are Ethereum L2, Scroll and Taiko have many similarities. Taiko's valuation is used as a reference for Scroll's valuation. In the two rounds that have been announced, Scroll has raised a total of 80 million US dollars. In the latest round of financing, Scroll's valuation is 1.8 billion US dollars. Although Taiko's total financing amount before TGE was only 37 million US dollars, its current FDV is about 1.7 billion US dollars, which is close to Scroll's valuation in the latest round of financing, and can be used as a reference for Scroll's circulating market value after listing.

At the same time, according to the pre-market trading markets of Bitget and AEVO, the current pre-market price of SCR is around US$1.6, and the FDV valuation is US$1.6 billion, which has certain reference value.

According to crypto KOL @OlimpioCrypto, Scroll's market value grew by $70 million last month, and it could grow to $1.5 billion before the airdrop snapshot on October 19. Compare the FDVs of Zksync, Starknet, Arbitrum, and Optimism. Based on the recent listings of Starknet and zkSync, Scroll's valuation is unlikely to be close to that of ARB and OP, but it is worth noting that Scroll's TVL is $740 million, Arbitrum's is $2.4 billion, Optimism's is $650 million, Starknet's is $240 million, and zkSync's is $860 million.

According to the forecast, the SCR FDV is $1.5 billion in the neutral case, $500 million in the pessimistic case, and $2 billion in the optimistic case. The following figure shows the relative valuation data, and the market data sources are Munris and Scrollstat.

https://x.com/OlimpioCrypto/status/1843659441897402725

Overall, the Scroll airdrop has a lot of buzz. According to Rootdata data, as of October 12, Scroll ranked first in the Top 100 popular Web3 projects. As the first project in Binance pre-market trading, SCR may have implications for the subsequent development of Binance Launchpool and the market's attitude towards institutional coins.