Fed Rate Cut Expectations in Focus
Following the release of CPI data, market participants remain highly attentive to the Fed's potential rate cut trajectory. Although the CPI figures may have diluted expectations for a November rate cut, Fridayâs PPI data showed inflation easing and holding steady month-on-month. This supports speculation that the Fed could proceed with a rate cut next month.
The week starts quietly, with no major U.S. economic releases until Thursdayâs retail sales data. If retail sales exceed expectations, it could bolster the U.S. dollar; however, weaker figures might apply downward pressure.
Key Macro Events to Watch:
Monday:
U.S. New York Fedâs 1-year inflation expectations (September).
Tuesday:
Fed Governor Waller discusses the economic outlook, and Daly (FOMC voting member) speaks at NYU Stern School of Business.
Wednesday:
U.S. Import Price Index for September and a speech by Kugler (FOMC 2025 voting member).
Thursday:
Multiple market-moving events:
Retail Sales Data (September)
Initial Jobless Claims (week ending October 12)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)
Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President) delivers remarks.
Friday:
Japanâs Core CPI (September)
Chinaâs GDP (Q3), Retail Sales, and Industrial Production (September)
Kashkari (FOMC 2026 voting member) speaks.
These events will shape market sentiment and provide further insight into economic trends and policy shifts. Investors should stay vigilant, as the data could trigger rapid market reactions and influence key investment strategies.
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