It is very interesting to follow geopolitics now, and what is happening in the global market in general. What I see at first glance⬇️
1) Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
2) Buffett invests in oil companies.
3) The United States will focus on increasing oil production on its own territories.
What do these points have in common? Inflation, of course. The US is calling on Israel not to hit Iraq's oil industry - this will definitely affect the growth of oil prices. And in general, oil prices are already rising. In general, the US and our government are calling on Israel not to hit the Russian oil industry. A strange position - we are your allies, we will help you win, but do not leave the enemy without the main vein that brings him money here and now, to stimulate the war, because the price of oil will rise, and inflation will follow.
Here we smoothly move on to the investments of Buffett, who can read the global narrative very well – he is investing in the oil industry right now. Looking at the US policy now, it is clear that they will stimulate the development of the oil industry in order to increase production, and flood the market with their oil in order to somehow reduce the price.
In contrast to all this, the Fed "almost defeated inflation", and it holds the rate at 2%. But nothing of the sort - at this rate in 2025 we will see a new stage of inflation growth, and quite rapid, and at the end of 2025, the beginning of 2026 we will go into a recession for a good 5-7 years, until the market recovers.
But before that, the bubble is inflated, and very seriously. This post is more about "thoughts out loud" than a specific forecast. I decided to share it with you.
