According to Cointelegraph, traders expect ETH’s price volatility to be significantly higher than that of BTC, especially in the context of upcoming macroeconomic events. Derive founder Nick Forster pointed out in an analysis report on October 2 that ETH’s future volatility is expected to increase significantly from October 25 to November 8, which is related to the US presidential election on November 5.

Forster stressed that the U.S. election could have a “significant impact” on ETH prices, as the DeFi ecosystem could face regulatory scrutiny over the president-elect’s stance on cryptocurrencies. Derive data shows that traders predict that within three days after the US election on November 8, there is a 68% probability that the ETH price will fluctuate between -14% and +16%, and a 95% probability of fluctuating between -26% and +35%. fluctuations. At press time, ETH’s future volatility is 76.6%, while BTC’s is 69.8%. Forster said this suggests traders are expecting significant volatility during this period, with ETH being more sensitive to external events.

He further explained that traders seem to have more confidence in Bitcoin's ability to withstand macro events, perhaps because of its established position as a digital store of value and fewer direct regulatory issues than Ethereum. Forster believes that as the US election approaches, traders' expected volatility in ETH reflects increased uncertainty. As of press time, ETH is trading at $2,364, down 5.93% since October 2. Although the much-anticipated Ether ETF was launched in July, this historic debut did not boost ETH prices.