In the past 10 years, USDCNH has been oscillating sinusoidally around the center of the upward channel of the weekly chart, and consolidating around the upper and lower channels.
This is also in line with the fact that the RMB will never go out of extreme trends. Don't bet on super unilateralism.
The range contains changes in the strength and weakness of China's exports. The core essence of the RMB is still driven by exports, and the turning point of the export strength and weakness cycle is not a short-term factor.
The small spring of global trade in 2017-2018 led to strong external demand and strong exports in China, so the USDCNH price will run to the lower track of the channel. The 2020/2021 epidemic caused supply chain obstruction, and domestic exports stood out in the world. When the epidemic gradually recovered, the global supply chain began to break. During this period, USDCNH ran to the lower track of the channel again.
We all know what happened in the next few years. The deterioration of the situation pushed USDCNH back to the upper track of the channel again.
The hawkish cabinet in the United States that will take office in 2025 may accelerate this process visibly, and USDCNH will move closer to new highs.
The RMB has not broken the rules of the past ten years, and USDCNH will eventually go to 7.52.
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