There is a key sentence in the speech of Fed Powell: interest rate hikes and cuts should be decided based on subsequent changes in economic data. The GDP of the United States in the first quarter was 1.6%, and the GDP in the second quarter was 2.8%. The second quarter data will be revised on Thursday this week, and it is very likely to be revised to more than 3.
The employment data is a cycle from March this year to March next year. The revision of 818,000 reductions before Powell's speech is obviously a planned and premeditated attempt to fuel the market's desire to cut interest rates. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits is 170,000, a new low in one or two months. The US economy is not in recession. The July Sam's rule (when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to the lowest point in the previous 12 months, the economy is likely to have entered a recession) ignited recession concerns. According to historical experience, the Sam's rule has been verified in all nine US recessions since 1960. However, Powell's speech expressed his cautious attitude towards the use of the Sam's rule in advance. The proposer of the Sam's rule himself also said that the US economy "has not yet fallen into recession." The Sam's rule may not apply to the current US economy.
The above data show that the US economy is developing well and there is no recession. It is impossible to cut interest rates in September.
The US dollar index will fall to 95-99 by the end of the year
Everyone says that interest rates will be cut, but when responding, we must do the opposite. If the good news is not realized, it will be bad news.
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